Climate Poll Con Job: ‘When you don’t like the poll numbers, make
up your own poll’ – Media Duped Again By Stanford U. Pollster
Jon Krosnick’s Shoddy Agenda Driven Climate Polling
Krosnick Has Been Publicly Reprimanded for poor results and methods by both Gallup & Pew Research
Pew research in 2010 said 'Krosnick's [previous] survey is marred by faulty methodology. ...used words that encouraged a positive response'Even fellow global warming activists like UN IPCC's Michael Oppenheimer acknowledged Krosnick's Stanford polls tend to skew to more 'believers' in man-made global warming
Krosnick new 2013 poll relied in part on 2006 polling data to draw conclusions about 2013
Krosnick in 2013 relied in part 'on self-completion of Internet questionnaires'
Krosnick's previous surveys lumped the phrase 'global warming' in with 'the environment' despite the fact that global warming was the 'lowest concern among all ENVIRONMENTAL issues'
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotNovember 14, 2013 11:37 AM
Climate Depot Special Report
Stanford University's Jon Krosnick (Krosnick@Stanford.edu) has been receiving a huge splash of publicity with his allegedly surprising state-by-state poling showing 'the vast majority of Americans in each of 40-plus states surveyed say global warming is real, serious and man-made' (USA Today) Jon Krosnick is the director of Stanford's Political Psychology Research Group.
Krosnick's polling results, complete with handy maps showing rising "belief" in man-made global warming, are a climate activists dream. According to Krosnick's new poll: "Majorities of residents in every state surveyed said the government should limit greenhouse gas emissions by businesses and, in particular, by power plants. Majorities also favored a cap-and-trade system to limit emissions; tax breaks to encourage the production of energy from the sun, wind and water; carbon sequestration; and government regulations or tax breaks to require or encourage improvements in the energy efficiency of automobiles, appliances and buildings. No state had a majority of residents opposed to any of those policies."
Could Krosnick be right? Is his poll a true shocker that shows the American public is now in lock step with Al Gore and the UN IPCC and the mainstream media?! Answer: Don't bet on it.
Even fellow global warming activists like UN IPCC's Princeton University Prof. Michael Oppenheimer acknowledged this week that Krosnick's Stanford polls tend to skew to more "believers" in man-made global warming. Oppenheimer tweeted on November 12: "Interesting new poll; often more believers in Stanford polls."
Krosnick's polling flies in the face of recent polling showing a committed lack of belief and concern about man-made global warming from large segments of the U.S. public. See: 2013 Rasmussen Reports Poll: Most People Don’t Blame Humans for Global Warming
Pew poll: ‘Americans are relatively unconcerned about global climate change’ — ‘Americans among the least concerned about this issue of the 39 publics surveyed’
Obama: ‘Dial testing’ of his State of the Union speech showed that the favorability ratings ‘plummeted’ when he vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so -- Wash Post excerpt: 'Obama expressed concerns about the political pain involved, saying that 'dial testing' of his State of the Union speech showed that the favorability ratings 'plummeted' when he vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so.'
2013 Pew Survey says only 42% say both that climate change is happening AND that it is mostly caused by human activity -- 'Not even Hurricane Sandy led to a lasting change in attitudes'
Washington Post Insiders: ‘Democrats’ lost momentum on climate change’ — ‘Climate change is probably leaving the stage as a political issue — just as Pres. Obama is trying to gather momentum for a major push’
Washington Post: ‘The public’s interest in climate change is waning’ -- 'A new Pew poll shows the percentage who say that global warming is a 'very serious' problem has slipped six points since October'
Cheers! Global Poll: ‘The perceived seriousness of climate change has fallen particularly sharply since unsuccessful UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen in Dec. 2009′
Krosnick Publicly Reprimanded for poor results and methods by both Gallup & Pew
Krosnick's polling methods have been publicly reprimanded by both Gallup and Pew Center Survey for his faulty results and analyses.
See: Warming propagandist Prof. Krosnick exposed: Pew research 'says that Krosnick's survey is marred by faulty methodology. ...used words that encouraged a positive response' - Pew: 'This is known in the polling world as acquiescence bias...almost all (surveys), except Mr. Krosnick's, show a significant decline in belief in climate change'
& Polling propaganda Prof. Krosnick slapped down by Gallup Polling! Recent polling 'shows demonstrable drops in Americans' acknowledgment of and concern about global warming' - Krosnick's Op-Ed 'could leave the impression that polls showing a decline in American concern about climate change should be ignored or are incorrect. This would be a mistake. A number of survey questions, conducted by several polling organizations — including Mr. Krosnick’s own recent survey — show demonstrable drops in Americans’ acknowledgment of and concern about global warming."
Krosnick's polling results on global warming have been challenged for years.
See: Flashback 2008: Krosnick's long history of climate propaganda: 'Krosnick invents a consensus position: climate change is occurring. But this is a meaningless assertion, devoid of any scientific value the public can expect psychologists to be engaged in brainwashing them into accepting political propaganda' -- 'Krosnick conducted a poll amongst the public, to see if their beliefs match those of the scientists, but neglected to poll scientists to establish their views'
Professor Krosnick's polling has been seen as propaganda for years. One 2010 headline said it all: Krosnick's Polling Con Job: 'When you don't like the poll numbers, make up your own poll'
Now, in November 2013, Krosnick is at it again. He claims his latest survey purportedly reveals "Majorities consistently said that the U.S. should take action regardless of what other countries do." Krosnick also conveniently claimed his research "suggested members of Congress who question global warming or oppose EPA power plant rules may not have an accurate view of what their constituents want."
In short, Krosnick's own personal views of on climate change and what he would like to see happen with regard to energy policy are now projected onto the American public.
Krosnick Using 2006 Polling Public Opinion Data to Draw Conclusions in 2013
Krosnick's media hyped state-by-state climate survey, relies on a mix of 21 existing surveys (mostly by Stanford) of recent polling data and some very old polling data going back to 2006! According to Stanford's website, Krosnick relied on 21 surveys "primarily conducted between 2006 and 2013. Data from 19,751 respondents were analyzed.:
Krosnick would have us believe that 2006 polling data is somehow relevant to today's global warming debate. Is 2006 data relevant to the UN climate summit or EPA regulations in 2013? But don't worry, we are assured by Stanford University that Krosnick applied his special techniques to massage er -- conduct a "secondary analysis" of the data to reach his obviously predetermined results.
Krosnick relied in part 'on self-completion of Internet questionnaires'
Stanford University explains: "Krosnick reached these [2013] conclusions by conducting what social scientists call a 'secondary analysis' of existing data from national surveys that measured public opinion in nearly every state on various issues related to global warming. He added data collected in surveys of representative samples of residents in a collection of states."
The University continues: 'The statistical modeling procedure estimated differences in opinions between states while taking into account the effects of each survey mode (e.g., telephone interviewing vs. self-completion of Internet questionnaires) on expressed opinions, differences between results obtained by different data collection firms and sponsored by different organizations, the effects of the season when the survey took place, and other factors. The result of the statistical modeling were measurements of opinions in each state in 2012-13 gauged via random-digit-dialed telephone surveys sponsored by Stanford."
But as of November 14, 2013, the actual survey with a breakdown of the full questions does not appear to be available for public inspection. This would not be the first time that Krosnick used the media to hype his results and conclusions without providing the full survey for inspection. See: The Financial Post's Lawrence Solomon revealed the same Krosnick's tactics in a June 21, 2010 article. According to the Financial Post, Krosnick did not release his full report for public scrutiny nor did he show the public the context for his questions.
Krosnick uncovers results 'no other pollster can find'
In a June 8, 2010 oped in the New York Times, Krosnick was still up to his old tricks, trying to convince people that he was a competent pollster who can find what no other pollster can find. (See: 2008: Stanford U. Prof. Krosnick: 'Huge majorities of Americans still believe earth has been gradually warming as result of humans & want gov't regs to stop it')
The Financial Post reported that Krosnick lumped the phrase “global warming” in with “the environment.” Here is the question Krosnick asked: “What do you think will be the most serious problem facing the world in the future if nothing is done to stop it?” According to the paper, when put this way, 25% of the public responded with “Global warming/the environment.” But Krosnick doesn't tell us how many of that 25% choose global warming versus the myriad of other environmental issues.
What is most shocking about this point is that in 2010, all major polling has consistently revealed that not only was global warming/climate change the issue of least concern, but it was the lowest concern among all ENVIRONMENTAL issues!
See:
1) March 2010: How could Americans show less concern?! Gallup Poll: Americans rank global warming DEAD LAST (8 out of 8) among ENVIRONMENTAL issues -- Not all issues! -- Only 28% of Americans worry 'a great deal' about global warming -- Water and air pollution, extinctions, deforestation, toxic waste, all rank among higher concerns;
2) March 2009: Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – 8th out of 8 Env. Issues; --
3) Climate Fears Fading: International Survey: 'People around the world view fresh water crisis as planet's top environmental problem' – August 18, 2009
4) March 2010: Rasmussen: 72% of American voters don't believe global warming is a 'very serious problem'
5) Gallup: Environmental concerns hit 20-year low in U.S – March 2010
6) Gallup Polling: 'It may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect'
7) Gallup Poll: '48% of Americans believe 'global warming is generally exaggerated' -- 'Americans now less convinced than at any time since 1997!' – March 2010 -- Gallup: Concern is 'reverting to levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago' -- 'In 1997, 31% said global warming's effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%'
8) I'm a free fallin, I'm a free fallin: Rasmussen Poll: 'Only the Democrat base (35%) now thinks climate change is man-made' – Feb. 2010 -- '47% now think global warming is naturally-occurring, cyclical phenomenon' -- 'Belief that human activity is the primary cause of global warming has declined significantly'
9) Zogby Poll: More Americans Have Little or No Concern About Climate Change
10) Climate Depot's (Pre-Climategate) Polling Fact Sheet: 'More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming' - 37% vs. 36%
(Note: The above are a very, very small sample of polling from 2010. For a more complete list see below)
For Krosnick to try to pull this tactic of combining climate and environment as though the public treats them identical, reveals that he was either ignorant of the wealth of polls at that time or he was deliberately trying to con the public.
The Financial Post further explains some of the polling tactics Krosnick regularly employs:
“Krosnick gets different results than other pollsters do by asking questions that some might consider bizarre. For example, when people told him that they didn't believe global warming was happening, he asked them to pretend they did by asking them, “Assuming that global warming is happening, do you think a rise in the world's temperature would be caused mostly by things people do, mostly by natural causes, or about equally by things people do and by natural causes? He then lumped the pretend response from people who don't believe in global warming with a similar question asked of people who weren't pretending about their belief in global warming. The result of the merger of these two groups was: 30% blame global warming on humans, 25% blame global warming on natural causes, and 45% believe humans and natural causes are about equally to blame. In the New York Times oped, Krosnick summarized this finding by pretenders and believers as “75% of respondents said that human behavior was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred,” even though many of those 75% didn't believe that global warming was happening at all. [End excerpt]
The professor's methods were exposed for the entire world to see.
Shame on you, Mr. Krosnick.
Krosnick has to be given credit for one thing -- the man was ambitious to even think he could hoodwink his colleagues, Stanford University, other polling organizations, the blogosphere, and the public.
The Financial Post also revealed: “[Krosnick] also chastises the press for interviewing global warming skeptics along with global warming advocates, saying this creates in the public mind the impression that the science is not settled on global warming. 6% of articles on global warming last year included the views of skeptics, a percentage Krosnick evidently views as too high.”
Related Links:
2013 Rasmussen Reports Poll: Most People Don’t Blame Humans for Global Warming -- 'According to an August Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 likely voters, 43 percent say global warming is caused by humans, 41 percent say global warming is caused by planetary trends, and 6 percent say global warming is caused by other reasons. The percentage of people blaming humans for global warming is down from 48 percent a year ago.'
Pew poll: ‘Americans are relatively unconcerned about global climate change’ — ‘Americans among the least concerned about this issue of the 39 publics surveyed’ - Pew Global Attitudes Project: 'In contrast, Americans are relatively unconcerned about global climate change. Four-in-ten say this poses a major threat to their nation, making Americans among the least concerned about this issue of the 39 publics surveyed, along with people in China, Czech Republic, Jordan, Israel, Egypt and Pakistan.'
Obama: ‘Dial testing’ of his State of the Union speech showed that the favorability ratings ‘plummeted’ when he vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so -- Wash Post excerpt: 'Obama expressed concerns about the political pain involved, saying that 'dial testing' of his State of the Union speech showed that the favorability ratings 'plummeted' when he vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so.'
2013 Pew Survey says only 42% say both that climate change is happening AND that it is mostly caused by human activity -- 'Not even Hurricane Sandy led to a lasting change in attitudes'
Washington Post Insiders: ‘Democrats’ lost momentum on climate change’ — ‘Climate change is probably leaving the stage as a political issue — just as Pres. Obama is trying to gather momentum for a major push’
Washington Post: ‘The public’s interest in climate change is waning’ -- 'A new Pew poll shows the percentage who say that global warming is a 'very serious' problem has slipped six points since October'
Cheers! Global Poll: ‘The perceived seriousness of climate change has fallen particularly sharply since unsuccessful UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen in Dec. 2009′
Climate Depot's Exclusive 2010 Polling Archive: (for the full 21 pages go here)
March 2010: Rasmussen: 72% of American voters don't believe global warming is a 'very serious problem'
Gallup: Environmental concerns hit 20-year low in U.S – March 2010
Cheers! Gallup Polling: 'It may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect'
A Victory for Science! Gallup Poll: '48% of Americans believe 'global warming is generally exaggerated' -- 'Americans now less convinced than at any time since 1997!' – March 2010 -- Gallup: Concern is 'reverting to levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago' -- 'In 1997, 31% said global warming's effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%'
I'm a free fallin, I'm a free fallin: Rasmussen Poll: 'Only the Democrat base (35%) now thinks climate change is man-made' – Feb. 2010 -- '47% now think global warming is naturally-occurring, cyclical phenomenon' -- 'Belief that human activity is the primary cause of global warming has declined significantly'
Zogby Poll: More Americans Have Little or No Concern About Climate Change
Fox News Poll: Majority of Americans Don't See Warming As Crisis -- issue of at 'bottom of the national to-do list'
Cheers! Rasmussen Poll: 50% Now Say Global Warming Caused by Long-Term Planetary -- 'all-time high among Americans' -- '34% say climate change is due primarily to human activity -- down from 47% in 2008'
Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – 8th out of 8 Env. Issues - March 2009 - Excerpt: (Air and water pollution, toxic waste, animal and plant extinction and loss of tropical rainforests, all ranked as greater concerns than global warming.) "Since more Americans express little to no worry about global warming than say this about extinction, global warming is clearly the environmental issue of least concern to them. In fact, global warming is the only issue for which more Americans say they have little to no concern than say they have a great deal of concern."
Yet Another Poll: Politico Voters Poll: Global Warming ranked dead last again! 'Just 4% ranked climate change as the top issue' – Oct. 20, 2009
Yet Another New Poll: FT/Harris Poll: Nearly 3 of 4 US adults not buying man-made climate fears – Oct. 22, 2009
Rasmussen Poll: 'Belief in ghosts' and 'Belief in global warming consensus' now in statistical tie? -- 59% Say Scientists Disagree 'Significantly' Over Global Warming – April 2010
Gallup Poll Editor: Gore has 'Failed' -- 'The public is just not that concerned' about global warming – May 5, 2009 - Excerpt: Gallup Poll Editor Frank Newport says he sees no evidence that Al Gore's campaign against global warming is winning. "It's just not caught on," says Newport. "They have failed." Or, more bluntly: "Any measure that we look at shows Al Gore's losing at the moment. The public is just not that concerned." [...] Ask people to name their biggest concerns, and just 1 percent to 2 percent cite the environment. "The environment doesn't show up at all," says Newport. "It's Al Gore's greatest frustration," says Newport. "We seem less concerned than more about global warming over the years."
Pew survey: Global warming ranks dead last as priority for Americans – Ranked 20th out of 20 issues - January 2009
NPR survey: 'Climate Change' finishes dead last in yet another voter poll - 12th out of 12 issues! – July 29, 2009
Bloomberg News Poll: 58% of Americans view global warming as 'minor threat' or 'no real threat at all' – September 15, 2009 - Excerpt: 31 percent [of Americans] say climate change is a minor threat and just 27 percent saying it's no real threat at all.
'Climate Change' ranks dead last [again] in nationwide Bloomberg poll -- Only 2% of Americans call it 'most important issue' – September 22, 2009
Polling: 'More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming' - 37% vs. 36% - October 2009
Gallup: 'Number of Americans who say media exaggerated global warming jumped to record 41% in 2009'
Pew Poll Eye Opener: 'The small minority that has heard a lot about cap-and-trade opposes carbon emissions limits by two-to-one (64% to 32%).' (Oct. 2009)
Pew Poll: Decline in belief in global warming 'has been particularly pronounced among independents'; 22% drop in 1 year!
Pew Poll: Even Democrats growing more skeptical; 8% drop in Dems who are convinced of global warming since 2008
MIT Climate Scientist: 'Ordinary people see through man-made climate fears -- but educated people are very vulnerable' – July 2009
Global Warming beaten out by 'humane treatment of farm animals' and 'obesity in America' -- global warming finishes last in yet another poll
Fading Fast: 'Climate Change' ranks dead last in nationwide Bloomberg poll -- Only 2% of Americans call it 'most important issue' – Sept. 2009
Na na na hey hey hey goodbye! Pew Survey: Global warming ranks dead last as concern for Americans -- 21 out of 21 – Jan. 2010 -- 'Global warming ranks at the bottom of the public's list of priorities; just 28% consider this a top priority, the lowest measure for any issue tested in the survey'
Poll: 70% of Americans Don't Blame Global Warming for Extreme Weather
Survey: Concern in Europe about global warming plunges from 30% to 18% in less than a year
Pew Survey: Only 6% of Scientists Self-Identify as Republicans
Poll: Just 37% Call Global Warming High Priority -- 'Significant drop from 2007' (CBS/NYT Poll Dec. 2009)
CNN Poll: Majority of Americans (53%) now skeptical of man-made global warming – Dec. 2009 -- 22% 'believeglobal warming is caused natural changes unrelated to man' -- 31% say man-made global warming is still an 'unproven theory' -- 'Only 45% believed global warming is a proven fact...down from 56% in 2007'
Pre-ClimateGate Poll: Harris Poll: 'Big Drop in Those Who Believe That Global Warming Is Coming - 'lowest number recorded' -- Only 41% think it is 'a very serious problem' -- 'Only 17% of GOP and 38% of Independents believe global warming should be treated as a very serious problem'
March 2010: How could Americans show less concern?! Gallup Poll: Americans rank global warming DEAD LAST (8 out of 8) among ENVIRONMENTAL issues -- Not all issues! -- Only 28% of Americans worry 'a great deal' about global warming -- Water and air pollution, extinctions, deforestation, toxic waste, all rank among higher concerns
Et Tu? California Poll: 'Fewer people think global warming is a serious threat to economy and quality of life'
Florida Poll: 'Entire premise of [cap-and-trade] legislation might be misguided in the public mind' -- 'Only 35% believe global warming is proved, while 57 percent say it isn't an established fact. By a 34-50 percent spread, voters oppose the cap-and-trade legislation'
Climate Fears Fading: International Survey: 'People around the world view fresh water crisis as planet's top environmental problem' – August 18, 2009
'73% of Canadians want climate policy delay for economic reasons or doubts over scientific certainty'
Germans lose fear of global warming after long, hard winter: Worry over warming drops 20% to 42%
Uk Poll: Sharp decline in public's belief in global warming -- Only 1 in 5 believe it is man-made
BBC: 'Dramatic shift' -- Climate skepticism 'on the rise' -- 73% say man-made warming is 'not yet proven' or 'propaganda' or 'not happening' – Feb. 2010'
Et Tu? Most French -- 74% -- oppose idea of carbon tax
Science is prevailing: 'Less than half of UK population believes human activity to blame for global warming' -- 'Ministers have failed in their campaign to persuade the public that the greenhouse effect is a serious threat requiring urgent action'
Poll: Half of UK public believes there is no proof global warming caused by humans – Dec. 2009
UK Greenie George Monbiot: 'We're losing. Climate change denial is spreading like a contagious disease'
Canadian concern over climate change plummeting
UK 'is less concerned about climate change than any other country in the world' -- 'Just 15% worry about climate change...lowest figure for any of the 12 countries surveyed...down from 26% last year'
Moment of Clarity down under: 'Australians care less about climate change -- concern dropped 14% -- 'The largest drop among the developed nations surveyed'
Dem Sen. Nelson 'My mail is running about 99-to-1 against' climate bill
'Phones are quiet': Congresswoman admits she's 'so disappointed' at lack of phone calls in support of climate bill
Liberal Senators Dodge Tough Climate Votes...'signaling that global warming is quickly becoming a political third rail'
Flashback 2008: Krosnick's long history of climate propaganda: 'Krosnick invents a consensus position: climate change is occurring. But this is a meaningless assertion, devoid of any scientific value the public can expect psychologists to be engaged in brainwashing them into accepting political propaganda' -- 'Krosnick conducted a poll amongst the public, to see if their beliefs match those of the scientists, but neglected to poll scientists to establish their views'
Warming propagandist Prof. Krosnick exposed: Pew research 'says that Krosnick's survey is marred by faulty methodology. ...used words that encourged a positive response' (Krosnick@Stanford.edu) -- Pew: 'This is known in the polling world as acquiescence bias...almost all (surveys), except Mr. Krosnick's, show a significant decline in belief in climate change'Reality Check: Climate Depot's (Pre-Climategate) Polling Fact Sheet: 'More Americans believe in haunted houses than man-made global warming' - 37% vs. 36%
Polling propaganda Prof. Krosnick slapped down by Gallup Polling! Recent polling 'shows demonstrable drops in Americans' acknowledgment of and concern about global warming' -- Frank Newport, Editor in Chief, of The Gallup Polling: 'At a time of concerted effort by those concerned about climate change to raise Americans' consciousness about its existence and dire potential consequences, American public opinion on the issue has moved in the exact opposite direction'
Huh? Stanford U. Prof. Krosnick: 'Huge majorities of Americans still believe earth has been gradually warming as result of humans & want gov't regs to stop it'
Krosnick's Polling Con Job: 'When you don't like the poll numbers, make up your own poll'
Follow me on Twitter at @ClimateDepot
Marc Morano
ClimateDepot.com